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Ma Foi Employment Survey (MEtS) |
| Oct 10, 2006 |
The Ma Foi Employment Survey (MEtS) is a study on the Indian employment trends and opportunities conducted by Ma Foi Management Consultants Ltd. It was started in November 2004 and is the largest and comprehensive study undertaken to understand the employment trends in the organized sector for the first time in the Indian subcontinent.
Ma Foi Employment Survey (MEtS) has gone through a makeover. It now captures the industry trends through 2 channels.
The first is a sample survey, conducted by an independent agency - TNS, which captures the employer's response on the net increase/decrease in their employee numbers and is represented through the Ma Foi Employment Index (MEI). The MEI measures the pace of recruitment activity of the employers by indicating the net percentage growth in their employee base over the past 6 months.
The second channel is the MeM (macro economic model). The MeM is a new macroeconomic model developed by Ma Foi, along with an ELP team from ISB, with the intention of making the survey more robust and dynamic.
The Macro-Model is a statistical model based on the economy as well as industry specific factors that envelope all the firms in a particular representative industry sector. For each sector, a set of 3-4 macro factors have been identified that affect the labor movement and these factors, which are specific to each industry, have been moulded into a statistical model to assess the growth or otherwise in the total organized labor market. Hence, the macro economic model identifies a causal link between the macroeconomic developments and the employment trends.
The results collected from both the channels are then presented to a panel of economists and industry leaders for collective deliberations and theirs views elicited to draw a deeper understanding of the industry trends and conclusions.
Ma Foi Employment Survey: MEI : Results - for H1
The MEtS survey covered 2143 companies across the 9 industry sectors, v.i.z.
1. Banking and Financial Services
2. Construction
3. Communication and Transport
4. Energy
5. IT and ITES
6. Mining
7. Manufacturing
8. Retail
9. Other Services
The overall Ma Foi Employment index (MEI) for the percentage of increase of employee numbers over the last 6 months is 2.89
MEI - By sectors
| |
Ind. Sectors |
No of Companies |
MEI-Track5 |
| 1 | IT & ITeS | 207 | 11.91 |
|
2 | Construction | 63 | 6.43 |
| 3 | Communication & Transport | 82 | 4.75 |
| 4 | Retail | 73 | 3.18 |
| 5 | Other Services | 182 | 2.08 |
| 6 | Manufacturing | 1309 | 1.90 |
| 7 | Energy | 60 | 1.21 |
| 8 | BFSI | 153 | 1.12 |
| 9 | Mining | 14 | 0.16 |
| | Total | 2143 | 2.89 |
MEI: Industry Leaders
In this track we have also calculated the MEI for 290 (Industry Leaders) representative companies by sector which feature in the top 500 companies and are considered representative of their industry segment.
| |
Ind. Sectors |
No of Companies |
MEI-Track5 |
| 1 | IT & ITeS | 30 | 16.15 |
| 2 | Construction | 4 | 10.67 |
| 3 | Communication & Transport | 3 | 3.92 |
| 4 | Retail | 14 | 2.59 |
| 5 | Other Services | 6 | 2.14 |
| 6 | Manufacturing | 190 | 1.17 |
| 7 | Energy | 19 | 1.03 |
| 8 | BFSI | 23 | 0.48 |
| 9 | Mining | 1 | 0.00 |
| | Total | 290 | 2.95 |
MEtS: Macro Economic Model (MeM)
The Macro-Model is a statistical model based on the economy as well as industry specific factors that envelope all the firms in a particular representative industry sector.
The industry sectors are:
10. Banking and Financial Services
11. Construction
12. Communication and Transport
13. Energy
14. IT and ITES
15. Mining
16. Manufacturing
17. Retail
18. Other Services
For each sector, a set of 3-4 macro factors have been identified that affect the labor movement and these factors, which are specific to each industry, have been moulded into a statistical model to assess the growth or otherwise in the total organized labor market. Variables include macro economic factors like:
1. Population Growth
2. Real GDP Growth
3. Budget deficit
4. Bank Lending Rate
5. Urbanization Growth
6. Growth in Road Density
7. Growth in Tele-density
8. Growth in Power Consumption
9. Growth in IT exports
10. Growth in Industrial Output etc..
Methodology
The macro economic variables for each industry segment have arrived at by identifying an exhaustive list of factors that could drive the labor movement. These Macroeconomic factors are specific to each industry. Thereafter, the statistical model was run to determine which of these factors more significantly explained the labor movement. By this process, several insignificant factors were eliminated and the model was fine-tuned. The sectoral models are based on Employment figures as published by Ministry of Labor (Organized Labor Force) for the period between 1991 to 2003. The macroeconomic variables' data are based on databases published by the related Ministry and/or government sources as well as internationally reputed databases viz. Economist Intelligence Unit etc.
It was also ensured that in each sector model, the R2 would be more than 80%, i.e. the factors in the model explain 80% of the labor movement.
Predictions
| VERTICALS | Jan 2006 | Aug 2006 |
|---|
| BFSI | (-)1,49,400 | (-) 1,31,120 |
| Communication and Transport | (-)25,350 | 10860 |
| Construction | 9790 | 8540 |
| Energy | 8420 | 19,620 |
| IT and ITES | 6,72,390 | 7,04,400 |
| Manufacturing | 17,530 | 23,000 |
| Mining | 16,150 | (-) 7090 |
| Retail | 14,050 | 15,620 |
| Services | 57,930 | 3,86,210 |
PREDICTIONS for the year (as given in Jan 2006) :
Total Growth : +6,21,510
PREDICTIONS for the year (revised in Sept 2006) :
Total Growth : + 10,30,040
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